Disapproval of Donald Trump Now Higher Than His First Term, Says Nate Silver
The disapproval rate for U.S. President Donald Trump is now higher than at a comparable point in his first term — a sign that public sentiment toward his presidency is slipping again, according to pollster Nate Silver.
In this article, we examine the latest polling data, policy‑specific sentiment, and political consequences — putting the 2025 numbers in historical context, comparing to 2017, and exploring what this could mean for the coming 2026 midterm elections and beyond.
Why This Spike in Disapproval Matters
Silver — the statistician best known for founding FiveThirtyEight — noted via post on X that as of late November 2025, 55.9 % of Americans disapprove of Trump’s overall job performance, compared with 54.9 % at a similar point in 2017.
Approval ratings represent a powerful barometer of public mood on issues such as the economy, leadership, and government trust. For a president seeking to maintain influence over Congress — especially given the narrow majority of Republicans in the House — sliding approval could weaken his ability to pass major legislation ahead of the 2026 midterms.
According to recent national polling aggregates, Trump’s current standings put him among the least‑popular U.S. presidents at this stage in their terms — a notable distinction in modern political history.
Where the Numbers Stand: 2025 vs 2017
To understand the gravity of the shift, it helps to compare metrics from 2025 with similar periods from Trump’s first presidency:
- In late November 2025, disapproval stands at 55.9 %. In 2017, at the same comparable point, it was 54.9 %.
- Polling from recent sources shows an average approval rating in 2025 of around 41.5 % and an average disapproval around 56 %.
- For comparison, in November 2017, one aggregator put Trump’s approval at about 39.2 % and disapproval at roughly 56.2 %.
In short, the current public sentiment is roughly as unfavorable — or even slightly more — than during his first term.
Further polling data reinforce the trend:
- A national survey from Marquette Law School (July 2025) found 45 % approve, 55 % disapprove of Trump’s performance. Among Republicans, approval remains high, but independents lean largely negative.
- According to a report from Pew Research Center looking at job ratings and policy‑specific attitudes, as of April 2025, many of Trump’s key policy moves — including increased tariffs and cuts to federal departments — drew majority disapproval from the public. 59 % disapproved of the tariffs, while 55 % rejected proposed department cuts. Meanwhile, 51 % said Trump is using executive orders too heavily.
- Another poll from late 2025 showed approval slipping to a second‑term low: a survey found 63 % disapproval, underscoring broad dissatisfaction.
In summary, both aggregated and individual poll data show Trump is facing serious headwinds — disapproval at or above first‑term levels, declining approval across key policy areas, and a public mood increasingly pessimistic about his administration’s direction.
What’s Driving the Drop: Policy, Economy, and Controversies
Several intertwined factors appear to be fueling the slump in Trump’s popularity.
Economic concerns and cost of living
With inflation remaining high and cost‑of‑living pressures squeezing households, many Americans seem unconvinced by the administration’s economic policies. According to the Pew Research data, a majority disapprove of the tariff increases and federal spending cuts — policies that critics say hurt working‑class Americans.
Backlash over executive overreach and trust in institutions
More than half of the surveyed adults feel the administration relies excessively on executive orders rather than working through normal legislative processes. That perception — of overreach and unilateral decision‑making — may be eroding public trust, even among some who support the president’s base policies.
Fatigue, scandals, and shifting expectations
Analysts quoted by the media suggest that part of the disillusionment springs from heightened expectations: many voters who supported Trump in 2024 expected swift economic gains and policy wins. As those expectations remain unmet — and with scandals (for instance, over scandal-linked documents such as in the Jeffrey Epstein case) and growing economic anxieties — the optimism that helped his election may be dissipating.
“This presidency this time round is none of the novelty and all of the stress.”
How 2025’s Disapproval Compares with Historical Presidents
Beyond just comparing present and past terms of the same president, it’s also revealing to measure 2025’s numbers against other modern presidents at similar points in their presidencies:
- According to Pew Research data, at about 100 days in, the current approval rating of 40 % for Trump is similar to what he had in his first term — yet significantly lower than what most recent presidents had at comparable moments.
- Historically, most presidents enjoyed a “honeymoon period” early in their terms, with strong public approval. By contrast, even at the start of his 2025 term, Trump’s approval was below 50 %.
Political analysts warn that this pattern — a president entering office with sub‑50% approval and then seeing rising disapproval — puts Trump in a historically anomalous position.
That said, some believe there remains a “floor” to Trump’s support: a committed base of loyal voters, polarized party lines, and the kind of durability that tends to keep approval from falling below a certain point.
What This Could Mean Ahead of 2026 Midterm Elections
With disapproval now potentially higher than in his first term at a comparable point, the implications for 2026 are serious.
- The narrow Republican majority in the House means even small shifts in voter sentiment — or lower turnout among Trump‑leaning constituents — could flip the balance of power. Several top analysts note that midterms often punish the party controlling the White House, especially if public dissatisfaction is rising.
- Policy agenda and legislative goals could get derailed — continued public pushback on tariffs, immigration, executive overreach, and economic outcomes might make it harder for the administration to push through controversial proposals.
- There may be growing internal pressure within the Republican coalition: while core supporters remain loyal, independents and swing voters — often the deciding groups in midterms — appear increasingly disillusioned, a factor that could tip close races away from the GOP.
In short: unless there is a turnaround in public mood — triggered perhaps by improved economic indicators, a visible win, or a shift in messaging — 2026 could be a challenging election for Republicans.
What to Watch Next: Key Indicators to Track
In the coming months, several developments will be crucial for understanding whether this disapproval trend holds — or reverses:
- New aggregated polling data from respected pollsters (such as those tracked by Nate Silver’s team). A shift toward net approval could signal a comeback; further decline might cement the downward spiral.
- Economic signals — inflation rates, cost-of-living metrics, consumer confidence surveys. If economic pain deepens, public discontent may grow; if things improve, that could stabilize or reverse public opinion.
- Major policy pushes or controversies — e.g., large legislation, executive orders, or scandals. Events that Americans view as overreach could deepen distrust; outcomes viewed as beneficial might improve polling.
- Voter turnout trends ahead of 2026 — which demographics turn out to vote, and whether independents or swing voters shift their support. The Guardian
Conclusion: A Turning Point for Trump’s Second Term
Disapproval of Donald Trump has now surpassed comparable levels from his first presidency, according to Nate Silver — a warning sign that the honeymoon period for his second term may be ending.
With increasingly negative public sentiment toward major policies, cost‑of‑living stress, and growing fatigue — not only among independents but within some Republican‑leaning cohorts — the 2026 midterm elections could present major challenges for the GOP.
Unless the administration can deliver tangible improvements on economic issues or restore public trust, this may mark the beginning of the end of Trump’s dominance over American politics.
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