Severe Weather Alert: Tornado watch Threat Looms Over Midwest & Plains Through Early Next Week
A significant severe weather event is unfolding across the Midwest and Plains, with meteorologists warning of a multiday siege of storms bringing tornado threats, damaging winds, and large hail. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk (Level 4/5) for areas including St. Louis, MO; Springfield, IL; and Peoria, IL, where destructive tornadoes and baseball-sized hail are most likely. An Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5) extends to cities like Memphis, TN; Des Moines, IA; and Cedar Rapids, IA.
The severe weather is driven by a strong upper-level trough moving across the central U.S., creating ideal conditions for severe thunderstorms. As the system deepens, a low-pressure center strengthens over the Midwest, drawing in warm, moist air from the south, providing the instability needed to fuel powerful storms. By Friday afternoon, a strong jet stream and increasing wind shear will enhance storm organization, with supercells likely to form first, followed by a fast-moving squall line pushing eastward into the evening.
Key Threats and Safety Measures
Residents in the affected regions should prepare for rapid weather changes and potential tornado warnings. Strong tornadoes, particularly in the Moderate Risk areas, could be long-tracked and dangerous. Winds over 70 mph could cause power outages and structural damage, while large hail may damage vehicles and buildings.
To stay safe, have multiple ways to receive weather warnings, such as a NOAA Weather Radio, emergency alerts on your phone, and local news broadcasts. Keep a flashlight, extra batteries, and a fully charged phone in case of power outages. If a tornado warning is issued, seek shelter immediately in a sturdy building, preferably in a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor away from windows.
Critical Weather Developments: Unreported Yet Crucial Insights into the Ongoing Severe Weather Threat
As the Midwest and Plains brace for a significant severe weather event, several critical developments have emerged that warrant attention. These insights, not previously detailed, provide a deeper understanding of the evolving situation and its potential impacts.
Elevated Tornado Risk in Southern Michigan
Recent forecasts indicate an increased risk of severe weather in southern Michigan, particularly along the I-94 corridor, including cities like Kalamazoo and Portage. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted this area for the potential development of significant EF2 or stronger tornadoes. The most active period is anticipated from 8 p.m. Thursday to 2 a.m. Friday, with thunderstorms expected to enter western Michigan around 9 p.m. and reach central areas by midnight. Residents are advised to have multiple ways to receive weather warnings and plan for overnight shelter.
Severe Weather Returns to Texas
After a brief lull, severe weather is expected to return to Texas this weekend. Starting Friday, isolated severe storms are anticipated in North-Central to Northeast Texas, including areas like Waco, Dallas, Tyler, and Texarkana. By Saturday, storm activity is expected to become more widespread, with the DFW metroplex, Wichita Falls, Abilene, and San Angelo under a Level 2 out of 5 severe weather risk, potentially upgraded to Level 3. Large hail and a few tornadoes are possible, with southern areas like San Antonio and Austin facing lower, yet still notable, storm chances. Residents are urged to stay alert for updates, watches, and warnings.
Minnesota Wildfires and Incoming Storms
In northeastern Minnesota, wildfires have destroyed over 140 buildings and continue to spread across tens of thousands of acres. The Jenkins Creek Fire has consumed over 20,500 acres, while the Camp House Fire has burned nearly 15,000 acres. An Air Quality Alert remains in effect for most of northeastern Minnesota due to smoke. Relief may be on the horizon as temperatures are expected to cool and rain is forecast to begin Thursday. However, incoming severe weather systems may also bring strong winds and flash flood risks, primarily to the western parts of Minnesota and the Dakotas.
Drought Conditions Persist in the Midwest
Despite the anticipated severe weather, drought conditions persist across parts of the Midwest. Outlooks for May 2025 call for a slight chance of above-normal precipitation across the Ohio River Basin, including Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, southern Illinois, and southeast Missouri. However, drought is expected to persist or redevelop through the end of July across Iowa, Minnesota, and Missouri, with potential expansion in far western areas. Long-term precipitation deficits between 20 to 50 inches in these areas mean they will be very reliant on regular spring and summer precipitation to avoid worsening drought conditions.
Historical Context: March 2025 Tornado Outbreak
The current severe weather threat comes on the heels of a historic tornado outbreak in March 2025. From March 13 to 16, a widespread and deadly tornado outbreak affected much of the Midwestern and Eastern United States. The outbreak resulted in 117 tornadoes, making it the largest on record for March. The event caused 43 fatalities and over 247 injuries, with damages estimated at $6.25 billion. Understanding the scale and impact of this recent outbreak underscores the importance of preparedness and vigilance during severe weather events.
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